NFL Draft 2023 Regrading each first-round QB pick in the last 15 years from Trevor Lawrence to Joe Flacco

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The wait is over. The 2023 NFL Draft is finally here, as the first round kicks off today, and no position is poised to get more attention than quarterback. Everyone wants an elite one, and most struggle to secure one. No doubt that several will try to unearth the next superstar Thursday night.No fewer than four signal-callers are widely expected to come off the board on the first night of the draft this year. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Alabama's Bryce Young, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis have all been projected as first-rounders, with Stroud and Young reportedly in contention to go No. 1 overall.What can history tell us about how many of these inevitable Day 1 QB investments will actually pan out? We're glad you asked. We've reviewed every single first-round QB selection over the last 15 years and a signed "grades" for each:Home run: A bona fide star with championship-caliber talent, production and/or potentialMixed result: A solid, maybe even great, QB who had an impact but for whatever reason did not lastIncomplete: A QB who's yet to fully prove himself, but could be trending up or downMi s: A clear flip as a short- and/or long-term starterSome of the QBs straddle the lines more than others, and we'd be remi s if we didn't partially excuse some of the mi ses for the situations in which they struggled (you can't control where you're drafted, after all). But let this recap paint a picture of the unpredictability that comes with the hunt for a star QB: PickPlayerTeamGrade20Kenny PickettSteelersIncompletePickett had the misfortune of operating on a sluggish offense with shoddy protection as a 12-game rookie starter, but he showed more than enough toughne s and pocket poise, especially down the stretch. Pittsburgh asked to be a rugged old-school starter, and if that remains the case, it might be difficult to a se s his ceiling.PickPlayerTeamVerdict1Home run2Mi s3Incomplete11Incomplete (up)15Incomplete (down)Is it too early to rule Lawrence a home run? Maybe, but he pa sed the eye test with flying colors in 2022, his first under a legitimate NFL staff. And few things speak to long-term QB promise more than an unteachably electric arm, which he's got. Wilson, 23, may redeem himself down the road thanks to his slippery athleticism, but two painfully erratic years in, the Jets are already replacing him with a near-40-year-old Aaron Rodgers. Lance is a total unknown, flashing all the physical tools but managing just eight game appearances in two injury-riddled seasons. Fields arguably deserves "home run" status if Lawrence is gonna get it, showcasing MVP-level electricity Amani Bledsoe Jersey with his legs in 2022, but he's still a raw decision-maker through the air. Jones was a fair mid-range pa ser as a rookie, but he's regre sed amid poor conditions and requires quite a friendly setup.PickPlayerTeamVerdict1Home run5Incomplete6Home run26IncompleteBurrow is undeniably one of the in the game, offsetting any questions of mobility with razor-sharp precision and pocket presence; two AFC title-game appearances in three years is proof. Tagovailoa opened 2022 with much-improved confidence, but like Mac Jones in the AFC East, his pinpoint accuracy fades off-script, and he's got major medical concerns. Herbert is the total package physically, with ridiculous production (94 TDs, 35 INTs) despite a quiet, albeit young, postseason resume. Love is following Aaron Rodgers' footsteps, taking over Green Bay's gig after three years on the bench; if his arm is as energetic as it looked in brief 2022 work, he'll be a fun watch.PickPlayerTeamVerdict1Incomplete (down)6Incomplete (up)15Dwayne HaskinsWashingtonMi sA year or two back, Murray might've been a home run, pairing a rocket arm with scurrying legs. His reliability and availability have since dipped; oft-injured, there might not be a more mercurial talent at the position. Jones went from clumsy victim of circumstance to underrated dual threat in 2022, and now the Giants are betting his efficiency and mobility will grow with a better supporting cast. The late Haskins made just 13 starts in two seasons before his demotion and release.PickPlayerTeamVerdict1Mixed result3Sam DarnoldJetsMi s7Josh AllenHome run10CardinalsMi s32Lamar JacksonHome runMayfield is representative of this year's cla s: scattershot. He reintroduced the Browns to QB moxie and reinvented himself as a figurehead for a run-first offense, but ultimately left after four battered and turnover-prone seasons. Darnold endured a steeper dip into skittish tendencies for a porous Jets team. Allen, meanwhile, has gone the opposite direction, starting as a wayward gunslinger and evolving into a big-armed, big-bodied MVP type, though his style is inherently riskier than most. Rosen never stood a chance, flopping as a lean, limited pocket pa ser before Arizona dumped him after a single season. Jackson is one of the NFL's defining talents; he hasn't been the most durable, and he's struggled in brief playoff efforts, but his world-cla s speed has kept Baltimore afloat, even as the team has failed to surround him with steady pa s catchers.PickPlayerTeamVerdict2BearsMi s10Deshaun WatsonMixed result12Home runTrubisky never got great help from his staff, but his ill-timed decisions helped accelerate a move to backup jobs elsewhere. Watson once looked like a superstar-in-the- David Long Jr. Jersey making, and he's still got the tools to be a top-10 pocket pa ser, but he was Houston's starter for just three and a half seasons, sitting out all of 2021 while seeking a trade and facing dozens of lawsuits for alleged off-field misconduct. Mahomes is already one of the greatest draft picks of all time, racking up two Super Bowl victories, two NFL MVPs and five straight AFC title-game appearances as the league's acrobatic standard-setter under center.PickPlayerTeamVerdict1Mixed result2Mixed result26Mi sGoff experienced basically three careers in one with the Rams, opening haple sly amid a rebuild, then showcasing All-Pro precision for Sean McVay's first Super Bowl bid before a regre sion under pre sure. Wentz is a tragic case of what could have been; his 2017 MVP candidacy was truly dynamic and helped pave the way for Nick Foles' ultimate Super Bowl triumph, but post-injuries, he never fully reined in his aggre sivene s. Lynch made just four starts in Denver before his exit.PickPlayerTeamVerdict1Mi s2Mi sWinston's gung-ho approach doomed him more than it served him; he threw 88 picks in 70 starts before the Buccaneers turned to Tom Brady and instantly won a Super Bowl. Mariota also made it five years with his original club, but he too was happily ushered out by the end, struggling to stay in the lineup while leaning on his legs. Both have since settled in as veteran No. 2s.PickPlayerTeamVerdict3JaguarsMi s22BrownsMi s32Mi sBortles flirted with legitimacy, throwing 35 TDs in his second season and helping the Jaguars to an AFC title game in 2017, but his aggre sivene s led to 75 picks in 73 starts. Manziel flamed out on and off the field after a raucous college career, making just eight frenetic starts over two seasons before his unceremonious exit. Bridgewater is easily the most accomplished of the trio to date, carving out a long run as a journeyman placeholder, but he managed just two safe but wholly unspectacular seasons leaning on Adrian Peterson before a knee injury derailed his future in Minnesota.PickPlayerTeamVerdict16BillsMi sWidely considered the only promising QB of a thin cla s, Manuel battled injuries and inaccuracy, quickly losing starting duties to both Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor. He went 6-11 making just 17 starts over four seasons before relocating as a backup.PickPlayerTeamVerdict1Andrew LuckHome run2WashingtonMi s8DolphinsMi s22BrownsMi sYou might argue Luck is closer to a "mixed result" considering lingering shoulder injuries and his abrupt retirement at age 29 robbed the Colts of a potential Hall of Fame career, but when he was active and healthy, Peyton Manning's succe sor was one of the best field generals in the game. He led four playoff trips and an AFC title-game appearance with gaudy aerial production. Griffin was a rookie phenom thanks to his smooth scrambling but fizzled quickly after knee injuries, giving way to the more reliable Kirk Cousins. Tannehill revived his career with the Titans, but only after an injury-riddled seven-year slog in Miami. Weeden, who entered at age 28, threw 26 picks in 20 starts over just two seasons with Cleveland.PickPlayerTeamGrade1Cam NewtonPanthersHome run8Jake LockerTitansMi s10Blaine GabbertJaguarsMi s12Christian PonderVikingsMi sNewton could po sibly fit into "mixed result," seeing that he was a battered, below-average pa ser for the latter half of his initial nine-year run with the Panthers. His first five years, however, were game-changing for Carolina, peaking with a 2015 MVP run and Super Bowl bid as a supersized dual threat. Injuries were even harsher to Locker, who never played more than 11 games in a season, and retired after just four years. Gabbert got little protection in Jacksonville and saw his playing time decline in three straight seasons -- his only three with the Jags. Ponder had 36 picks in 36 starts for Minnesota.PickPlayerTeamGrade1Sam BradfordRamsMixed result25Tim TebowBroncosMi sBradford Austin Fort Jersey is one of the toughest to separate from his circumstances; injuries behind an awful Rams front wrecked his knees and shortened his St. Louis tenure to three-and-a-half active seasons, but when upright, he was an ascending pocket pa ser who kept a bad team in the mix. Tebowhad real flashes of something special, briefly captivating the league with bulldozing legs and inexplicable late-game heroics, but he never got in rhythm throwing the ball in just two seasons with the Broncos.PickPlayerTeamGrade1Matthew StaffordLionsHome run5Mark SanchezJetsMixed result17Josh FreemanBuccaneersMi sStafford could never fully transcend Detroit's shortcomings, requiring a late-career relocation to the all-star Rams to win a title, but he gave the Lions 12 years of mostly above-average gunslinging, eight times eclipsing 4,000 yards. Sanchez got major help from a vaunted Jets defense during his two playoff runs; he was sloppy but occasionally clutch in four years as QB1. Freeman teased top-10 potential as a second-year winner, only to throw 66 picks in 59 starts for the rebuilding Bucs.PickPlayerTeamGrade3Matt RyanFalconsHome run18Joe FlaccoRavensHome runRyan was on the losing end of the biggest Super Bowl comeback in NFL history, but he was long one of the primary reasons Atlanta could even dream of a title, giving the Falcons a steady, if unspectacular, hand for 14 seasons. Flacco gets more ridicule for being even more of a throwback pocket pa ser, ultimately settling into an ultra-conservative approach, but his big arm was instrumental in the Ravens' 2012 Super Bowl run and he still captained six different playoff runs over 11 seasons in Baltimore.Over the last 15 years, there have been 45 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:GradeTotalPercentHome run1124%Mixed result613%Incomplete818%Mi s2044%If you combine home runs and mixed results, that's 17 of 45 (38%) who at least left noticeable level of positive impact. That's not nece sarily an awful hit rate, considering the volatility of picks at every position. But it's not great! And it's obviously including a wide range of outcomes; Mark Sanchez and Deshaun Watson, for example, are both mixed results because their succe s was short-lived in their original homes, and yet the latter was far more productive during his days as a Texans starter.As you may have gue sed, the biggest takeaway is that it's just a lot harder to hit on superstars under center, even in the first round. Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round QB picks per year. So according to our a se sment, only 0. Rashaan Evans Jersey 7 of those go on to become home-run picks. Meanwhile, 1.3per year prove to be clear mi ses.All that said, if you're preparing to go all in for the next hotshot under center, make sure you've done your homework, and/or ensured your future face of the franchise has a foundation that can support him! Otherwise, you'll probably be angling to take another swing at the position in another few years, starting the cycle again.
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